The biggest sign? Apple chopped the $1 million dollar minimum spend on iAd down to $500,000 in February, but Bloomberg reports that the company is now offering agencies a minimum spend of $300,000 if they agree to multiple campaigns.

Apple says it has run 100 campaigns from 20 companies in seven countries and has 50 more in development, which honestly doesn’t sound very impressive. Even lamer, apps on the iOS platform are reporting 5% to 15% fill rates from iAds.

While initially agencies were flustered with Apple’s micromanagement approach to developing the ad products, in December Apple loosened its grip and gave agencies Producer for assisting in the construction of iAds. Then Apple chopped the price floor, but still the revenue is less than impressive. What’s clogging the cash pipe?

“Apple’s closed ecosystem may have been interesting in the short run for advertisers, but in the long run they priced themselves out,” Thom Kennon, senior vice president of strategy for Young & Rubicam, told Bloomberg.

Sounds a lot like what Adotas suggested would happen last year when the iAd was introduced — long before Android-powered smartphones became the most prevalent in the U.S. Advertisers are attracted to rivals like Google’s AdMob and ValueClick’s Greystripe’s iAd-esque products not just because they’re cheaper, but mainly because they’re cross-platform.

iAds could be the greatest ads ever conceived, but Apple’s walled garden will continue to suffocate the project.

To give that figure some perspective, the bigger independent mobile ad networks seem to range from 20 billion to 35 billion impressions served monthly.

But it’s the tablet traffic that’s really blowing minds over at AdMob — with a recorded 300% increase in the last six months, tablets account for one out of every six mobile ad requests. Fittingly, AdMob is introducing several new ad formats specifically designed to take advantage of tablets’ larger screens and touch capabilities. Built in HTML5, new interstitial units can incorporate video, image galleries and other interactive features.

Check out the vid:

I’ll be damned if those don’t remind me a bit of iAds…

Earlier this week, Google introduced in beta the serving of rich media ads from DoubleClick into AdMob. Agencies can use DoubleClick Studio to build these mobile units while advertisers can use DoubleClick for Advertisers to serve them and measure their performance. In addition, DoubleClick for Publishers Small Business ad server will soon be with AdMob, allowing publisher clients to manage ads on their mobile websites.

It seems eventually DoubleClick will become the one-stop platform for advertisers and publishers to manage their mobile and display advertising.

Oh, and there’s more: AdMob House Ads for developers to internally promote products and services has been upgraded with new ad formats as well as improved campaign management and better ad targeting options. Google is also integrating a “mediation” tool into AdMob Ads SDK that will select the “most valuable” ad from competing mobile networks. Very curious about that…

And whatever happened to AdMob founder Omar Hamoui, who left Google five months after the acquisition was finished? Well, he’s playing with digital gnomes…

“We suspect AdMob collected personal location information without consent or approval from the Korean Communication Commission,” a South Korean police official told Reuters.

This investigation is the latest setback for Google operations in South Korea. Criminal charges were filed against the company for its “unintentional” WiFi data-collecting through Street View cars and it is facing antitrust claims from Korean Internet companies NHN Corp. and Daum Communications.

The police also hit Daum’s offices to investigate misuse of location data. The company claimed data collected by it mobile ad division was anonymous and could not be used to track consumers. Sorry, Daum, that reasoning isn’t finding sympathetic ears in the U.S. either.

With such incredible growth and reach, it is no wonder that attention is now being focussed on using mobile technology as an important method of customer acquisition.

Traditionally, mobile advertising opportunities have been limited to text or “lite” banner-based link-outs appearing on limited functionality WAP sites. This has been largely due to slow data speed, proprietary platforms and the limitation of connectivity to the internet due to walled gardens. With the changing face of technology and the shift from voice to data, all of that has dramatically changed.

To understand the magnitude of this, consider that mobile data traffic surpassed voice traffic in 2009 and exceeded 1 Exabyte (1 million Terabytes) of data transfer. In 2010, the U.S. and Western Europe alone were expected to both exceed 1 Exabyte in such data traffic.

Not only that but the data speeds are increasing rapidly with the estimation that by 2014, nearly half of mobile users will be using some combination of 3G and 3.5G+ technologies and about 33 percent will be using 3.5 G+ technologies such as WiMAX and LTE (often referred to as 4G) . This gives rise to graphically rich content availability and high definition video capabilities which can be leveraged to previously unseen levels.

Complementing the increase in data speed is the mainstream adoption of the smart phone. Two hundred and seventy million smartphones were sold in 2010, a 55% increase on the 174 million sold in 2009. According to Gartner, smartphone sales grew 96% in Q3 2010 compared to the same quarter last year, and smartphones accounted for 19.3% of overall mobile phone sales. It is expected that smartphones sales will now exceed PC sales in 2011 with over 500 million predicted to be sold.

Apple has revolutionized the industry, mainstreaming smartphone adoption with its iPhone and dominating the application space with it App Store, which facilitates over 200,000 applications distributed over their network and has achieved over 10 billion downloads. Adding to this is the increasingly popular and successful uptake of the hardware agnostic Android and its app store — a whole new world of opportunities is open to us.

The adoption of this technology and huge distribution capabilities has wide-scale implications on the mobile advertising landscape stemming from not only global coverage but the potential of targeting not only the mobile web but applications as well. Add to that the integration of location-based global positioning systems, I predict that along with the conventional advertising that will occur on re-purposed mobile websites, there will be a huge push into the in-app advertising space where all of this functionality can be leveraged to full extent.

The ubiquitous text and banner ads from the likes of AdMob and Quattro will continue to be the main form of advertising until app developers become comfortable with the inclusion of other types of formats, including video. All of these will be personally targeted to the user. In-app purchases are already becoming an effective way of monetizing applications and I see applications being built around the ad-component integrating location, personalization and stickiness causing users to return to a newly generated social aspect which is sure to pervade the space.

So is it possible we’re finally seeing the tremendous growth in mobile that the industry has been buzzing about for the past five years? I believe so. The facts all point to the promise of mobile advertising delivered… and it’s happening now, right before our eyes.

Mobile represents the second wave of the Internet and the mobile advertising market will become mainstream in 2011. Just earlier this month, Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker stood on stage at the Web 2.0 Summit and explained that 2011 will be a shining year for mobile.

Recent eMarketer findings reinforce Meeker’s prediction that within three to five years the majority of consumers will access the Internet via mobile devices. In fact, Meeker most recently predicted that by 2012, more smartphones will be shipped than desktop and notebook PCs combined.

In many ways, mobile is the most exciting ad platform because it’s so personal and portable, and it directly connects a user’s interests to an action through a tailored experience.

So what’s in store for the year ahead? I believe we’ll see a plethora of new players embracing mobile advertising and marketers will realize the potential of the platform to help grow their business. Here are my predictions for the coming year:

Mobile will get its own allocation in advertisers’ marketing budgets. According to Nielsen, smart phone penetration is hovering around 29 percent, but is expected to hit 50% by 2012.  This broad reach is compelling marketers to shift mobile to its own line item in brand marketing budgets. In addition, cross-platform media research in 2011 on effectiveness will categorically show the incremental impact of mobile ads on brand metrics when combined with TV and online.

Mobile will be integrated into digital planning and measurement tools. Integration into platforms like Doubleclick and agency trading desks will begin taking place in 2011. This long waited step will make it easier for agency media planners to include mobile on the front-end and measure mobile on the back-end. The clear quantification of performance and ROI in mobile vs. PC-based Internet will result in budget shifts.

M-commerce connected to mobile advertising will take off. As marketers and retailers invest resources to build comprehensive m-commerce initiatives, so will they focus on promoting them “in medium.” Currently 80% of US multichannel retailers have no M-commerce capabilities and only 12% of the top 500 internet retailers have sites optimized for mobile phones.

As consumer behavior shifts, so will the marketing efforts behind mobile-optimized sites, allowing consumers to begin the m-commerce process on mobile and completing the transaction on a PC, or vice versa. Promoting these mobile-optimized experiences for brands will be a big focus in 2011.

Mobile video will take center stage. Carriers, networks and app developers all know that Mobile Video is the next killer app. Sight, sound and motion has long been a major driver in user engagement. Allowing consumers to follow their viewing experience across multiple devices including tablets, PCs, and connected TVs will be a reality in 2011. This behavioral shift will dramatically change through Android and Apple-powered TVs and will plug right into the mobile app ecosystem, allowing mobile video to gain scale very rapidly.

Tracking audiences and the consumer experience will become key. As advertisers continue to advance their focus on audience buying and consumers shift their Internet consumption to multiple devices, the need to track the user experience across devices will likewise increase.  Publishers will need to understand the “consumer experience” across platform and adjust content accordingly.  In 2011, marketers will focus on utilizing consumer audience data to provide customized experiences suited for mobile and tablet devices.

Traditional ad networks and other players will be clamoring to become a part of the mobile ecosystem. As Internet consumption moves from PC to mobile so will the dollars follow. While many PC and digital companies have been cautious with their mobile investments, their attention will mirror the change in consumer behavior and place more emphasis on mobile accordingly.

In 2011, mobile devices will become a compelling option for those that may have never considered mobile in the past.  In addition, the industry will see more growth as non-media players, including technology vendors, carriers, traditional media companies, infrastructure enablers and handset manufacturers, join the mobile advertising industry via mergers and acquisitions. For many players that were left behind in PC Internet revolution, mobile represents the next ‘gold rush’ to make their mark.

A year from now when we are looking back on 2011, I think we’ll not only see these seminal changes, we’ll also witness how they positioned the mobile ad space to grow at a rate that the media industry has never seen.

In addition to boasting about stats like 40 million subscribers (while Groupon averaged 100,000 signups per week at the beginning of 2010, 3 million joined just last week) last night on Charlie Rose, Groupon CEO Andrew Mason commented, “When people call us the fastest growing company ever, I think of us as like the ‘N Sync of websites, like we have had good tunes, but we’re not The Beatles.”

A surprisingly humble statement from the head of a company that just turned down being Google’s largest purchase ever. It’s also a little strange because Mason seems to understand that Groupon’s shelf life is limited — while I can sing just about any Beatles song, I had to consult the Internet to remember ‘N Sync titles from less than a decade ago. (Granted, I wasn’t a teenage girl when Justin, JC and those other guys appeared — I was a college kid blasting At the Drive-In and And You Will Know Us by the Trail of Dead.)

So if you know your operation is merely a fad, why wouldn’t you leap on a ludicrous offer from an Internet giant who should know better?

Well, a source with an in to the Groupon board told Business Insider that regulatory holdups and the kill fee were at the heart of the discounter’s rejection.

As you may have noticed, Google’s been having leap all kinds of regulatory hurdles to get its major mergers done — the AdMob acquisition looked particularly painful. The Internet giant is currently in the middle of two anti-trust investigations.

So, if the merger went south, Groupon wanted breakup protection similar to what DoubleClick (Google’s largest acquisition) had. Business Insider notes that the $750 million AdMob deal had a $700 million kill fee. Though a specific number wasn’t cited, apparently Google scoffed at Groupon’s figure, so the board walked.

Which couldn’t have been easy — board members could made more than $100 million each, while cofounders Brady Keywell and Eric Lefkofsky would have receive $600 million and $1.8 billion, respectively.

While Mason dodged all questions about the failed Google acquisition on Rose’s show and again this morning on the Today Show, at Le Web in Paris, Google’s Marissa Mayer kept hope alive for an acquisition. She suggested that such a large deal simply required more time to strategize.

Looks like Google still goes to sleep clutching its autographed promotional glossy of Groupon. Will it regret this obsession when it gets older?

Those efforts aside, Facebook claimed another head on Friday with Lars Ramussen, the cofounder of Google Maps who had spent six years with Big G. He told The Sydney Morning Herald that a personal pitch from Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg convinced him the social network is a “once-in-a-decade type of company.” Ramussen will be moving from Sydney to Silicon Vally, but Facebook declined to say what his new position would be or in what capacity he’d be working.

Another reason he may be taking off is that his pet project Google Wave went out with a whimper earlier this year. His three co-Wavers, including brother Jens Rasmussen, are sticking at Google, and Rasmussen doubted he would be working on something similar at Facebook.

Rasmussen wasn’t the only Google evacuee this past weekend. Right after the mobile ad network introduced interactive video and interstitial ads to the Android operating system, AdMob founder and CEO Omar Hamoui announced he is leaving for personal reasons. TechCrunch notes that two other high-level AdMob execs — Ali Diab, formerly VP of product management and business operations, and Niren Hiro, formerly VP of business development — have jumped ship since Google’s acquisition was completed in May.

Finally, YouTube cofounder Chad Hurley stepped down as CEO of the social video site, but this seemed to be a planned transition as he handed the wheel to Salar Kamangar, who has been running day-to-day operations since Google dispatched him to the unit in 2008. Hurly will remain a part-time adviser, though is apparently more interested in his clothing company HIaska. Though the company’s name is a blend of Hawaii and Alaska, I was upset I couldn’t find any Hawaiian-print parkas on their site…

Then again, when the government makes you jump through a lot of hoops before rubber-stamping your major merger, innovation can take a back seat.

The new Android SDK for publishers opens the doorway for both video and interstitial ads, the latter of which can be served during the opening of an app or while the app is running. Google notes that such ads have done really great on iOS, but Apple’s new developer terms exclude ad networks run by larger operations no focused on mobile ad serving.

Even when combined with the share of recent acquisition AdMob, Google’s mobile ad share is estimated to drop from 27% to 21% year over year. Yahoo will also take a tumble, from 12% to 9%, alongside Microsoft (10% to 7%) and Nokia (7% to 5%).

But pray tell, why does this suggest iAd is actually a success? Well, Quattro Wireless, which Apple acquired in January, boasted only a 9% share in 2009; the iAd was introduced back in April and launched in July (with well-publicized hiccoughs).

Besides Apple’s momentous entrance into the space, IDC also sees prominent gains for indie mobile ad networks in 2010: Jumptap is expected to take a 13% slice this year compared to 10% in 2009 while Millennial Media is estimated at 11% versus 9% last year.

Well, it’s too bad Emily Post recently passed away as she could have passed judgment on the two companies’ latest dispute about competitive etiquette. To reframe it in terms of manners, Apple is throwing a mobile ad party and old friend Google is not invited.

Well, neither is Microsoft, if that makes Google feel any better. It doesn’t? Um…

So is rude or just business? Apple’s proposed new developer terms specifically excludes “an advertising service provider owned by or affiliated with a developer or distributor of mobile devices, mobile operating systems or development environments other than Apple would not qualify as independent.”

Oh, that includes you, doesn’t it, AdMob? You’re with those Google guys now, the ones who make that… Is it the Robot operating system? No, no — Android. Yeah! Oh, don’t they make a phone too? I think I heard something about that. Anyway, what a shame… Keep off our platform.

Google and AdMob took the news as a slap in the face. This move would hurt developers large and small and ultimately consumers by limiting the monetizing choices for apps, AdMob founder Omar Hamoui said in a blog post.

Competition in mobile advertising has driven not growth but also innovation — he cites the story of a developer who built an app on a whim that transformed into multi-million dollar revenue stream… with the help of (ahem) AdMob.

“Let’s be clear. This change is not in the best interests of users or developers,” Harmoui writes. “Artificial barriers to competition hurt users and developers and, in the long run, stall technological progress.” He adds that the company will be expressing its concerns to Apple.

Apple didn’t feel the need to comment. Microsoft said, in case anyone cares, it was investigating the terms. You do that, buddy.

Getting shut out of the party is going to hurt AdMob from a revenue standpoint: AdMob delivered 30% of its ads to Apple mobile devices in April. It’s another headache for Google after the company finally got government approval for its acquisition. You can imagine someone over there is saying aloud, “What again did we pay $750 million for?”

Then again, Apple could consider the change in developer language just desserts since Google eloped with AdMob as Apple was courting it. This is how the best friendships fall apart — over an ad network.

The winners in this debacle are the independents like Greystripe, Jumptap and Millennial, who will be able to serve ads on whatever platform they please. Always the control freak, Apple will first need to give its blessing for an independent ad server to do its thing on an Apple device.

So while people thought Quattro and AdMob were going to dominate the space, it looks like the indies will get a large piece of the pie mainly because they’re cross-platform operators. There’s a juicy bit of irony in this as Greystripe recently teamed up with Adobe to offer a less expensive iAd rival that is cross-platform and allows developers to build in Flash.

“We are pleased that Apple’s new terms and conditions explicitly allow Greystripe… to operate on the iPhone and iPad platforms,” gleamed Dane Holewinski. Greystripe director of marketing. “It confirms the value of third party ad networks in enabling developers to earn great revenue with their applications.”

He then said, yes, he’d love another crumpet with his Earl Grey, thank you Mr. Jobs.

UPDATE — Greystripe just wanted to make it clear that its relationship with Adobe should not affect its relationship with Apple:

“We have received a couple of inquiries about whether Greystripe will be impacted by Apple’s new developer terms and conditions, given our recently announced collaboration with Adobe. To clarify any uncertainty, Greystripe is an independent ad network and is not ‘…owned or affiliated with a developer or distributor of mobile devices, mobile operating systems or development environments.’ We are, and will continue to be, in regular communication with Apple to ensure that we are operating within their terms and conditions.”

Apple shouldn’t have any beef as Greystripe is translating Flash into HTML5. Read all about it here.