LiveRail: 2014 Predictions from CEO/Co-Founder Mark Trefgarne
1. “One of the major MSOs will announce an IPTV service in 2014.” Consumers are growing more accustomed to consuming entertainment on devices other than through their regular cable operator, i.e. tablets, smartphones, OTT internet connected devices like Roku. In recent years, MSOs like Time Warner Cable, Comcast, Cablevision and Charter have been testing the waters to see the viability of creating an IPTV service. For example, Verizon’s rumored purchase of the Intel Media platform. Both Cablevision and Time Warner Cable are offering Roku-like offerings to their subscribers. According to Informa, the global total of pay IPTV homes will more than double to 70 million by end-2014; up from 26 million at end-2009. MSOs realize the new viewing habits of consumers and will look for ways to satiate this appetite by creating new opportunities like an IPTV to introduce to viewers and find a way to monetize these offerings.
2. In 2014, the number of video views on mobile devices will reach 40%. It’s no secret that consuming content on mobile devices is on the rise. According to Adobe, video consumption continued to grow on PCs last year, but 2012 was the year that video on mobile devices gained significant ground. Mobile video views jumped 300% last year, accounting for 10.4% of video starts, up from just 3% in 2011. Tablets are fueling the growth. For many publishers mobile devices represent almost 50% of their total video traffic so we’d expect to see mobile representing about 40% of total video traffic by the end of 2014.
3. In 2014, RTB will reach 25% of video ad spend. Real-time bidding (RTB) continues to increase as more marketers and publishers embrace the greater efficiency and measurability of programmatic technology. As reported by Forrester, RTB will account for 25% of video ad spend by 2014. Additionally the study found that RTB has been the fastest growing segment of the online video business, growing more than 100% from 2011 to 2012 and forecast that it would grow to more than 70% in 2013.
4. Online-only shows like “House of Cards” and “Orange is the New Black” have become so popular that in 2014, we will see a major broadcaster produce a web-only series. We’re now living in an era of binge watching where consumers are no longer bound by the “cable cord.” Services like Netflix and Hulu are successful because consumers have been empowered to watch whatever show they want, when they want, outside of the home. Broadcasters know this and will be looking for ways to create original online-only content that will be on par with these other successful web-based programs.
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