Whilst online advertising in the US grew by 10 per cent overall last year, fourth quarter trading suffered a dramatic slowdown which leads Screen Digest to anticipate a five per cent fall in 2009.
The firm’s media industry analysts predict that all categories and sub-categories except video will decline in 2009. Banner advertising, -8.8 per cent, will not be fully compensated by the double digit growth of online video, so that the Display category will be down 3.6 per cent. Search will shrink by two per cent and non-Display categories such as Classifieds will experience double digit falls. Overall, the total internet advertising market will shrink by five per cent, -4.8, in 2009 and only stabilize, +0.4 per cent, in 2010.
Vincent Letang, Senior Analyst at Screen Digest, said that looking at the US results from the fourth quarter last year, it’s very clear that online Display will fall this year despite the growth of video. Search was still growing in Q4 but the growth rate has slowed down so much that the firm now believe the next quarter will be in the red too – and online Classifieds will continue to fall. Our full year forecast for total internet advertising is thus down around five per cent.
Display and Search, being huge and mature media, cannot be immune from the ongoing ad slump even though they will continue to outperform most other media during the period. Screen digest anticipates the total US ad market to go down two digits in 2009, while some media, press, local TV, could be down by up to 20 per cent.
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