Forecasting global ad spend decline
ADOTAS — Carat forecasts declines in global advertising, led by negative growth in almost every major advertising market, with the exception of China
The UK media buying firm’s new prediction for worldwide expenditure this year is a fall of -5.8 percent with a small return to growth of 0.7 percent for 2010. The US and Spain have the most severe falls in growth, with forecasts predicting -9.8 percent and -16.5 percent respectively. They are also both predicted to record negative growth into 2010. The UK, France and Italy are forecast to have single digit declines in 2009, moving back into positive territory for the following year. Japan is forecast for a -5.5 percent reduction in spend for 2009.
“These forecasts represent widespread adoption of a much more cautious approach to spending in the face of widespread economic uncertainty,” Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Aegis Media, said in a statement. “Of course, these predictions themselves are just that: our best guess at this point in time, in a market we know to be uncertain,”
Germany and Canada seem less volatile, in relative terms, with one or two percentage points of negative growth predicted. And with a prediction of 4.6% for 2009, China is the only major market with positive growth, albeit well below the 18.9% recorded for 2008.
“In an environment where clients are focusing on the value they can get from their media spend, they want proven and accountable communications,” Buhlmann said. “This could be one reason for the relative resilience we are seeing in TV and online.”
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