Report: Most Will Access Net Via Phone by 2020
ADOTAS – Most consumers will be accessing the Web through their mobile phones by 2020, according to new research from the Pew Internet & American Life Project.
Pew conducted surveys with about 1,200 online experts, journalists and technologists, and the majority predicted that the affordability, easy accessibility, widespread use and portability of mobile phones will make them the “primary” Internet connection.
Other key findings from the report:
• The transparency of people and organizations will increase, but that will not necessarily yield more personal integrity, social tolerance, or forgiveness.
• Voice recognition and touch user-interfaces with the internet will be more prevalent and accepted by 2020.
• Those working to enforce intellectual property law and copyright protection will remain in a continuing arms race, with the crackers who will find ways to copy and share content without payment.
• The divisions between personal time and work time and between physical and virtual reality will be further erased for everyone who is connected, and the results will be mixed in their impact on basic social relations.
• Next-generation engineering of the network to improve the current internet architecture is more likely than an effort to rebuild the architecture from scratch.
Reader Comments.
This seems to be an incredibly conservative forecast. 2020…? More like 2012. The realization that it’s possible to get a reliable, presentable and predictable internet experience from a mobile device is already dawning of growing numbers of US consumers, in another couple of years it’ll be taken for granted that you can go on-line from a phone.
Then it’s a short journey to the majority of internet connections – measured by numbers of users and numbers of connection instances – originating from mobile devices.
By 2020, the standalone PC will be unrecognisably transformed into an embedded computational device on worktops, aircraft and train seats, home appliances, cars etc etc.
The phone will be the main window to on-line content and productivity tools. An awful lot happens over an 11 year timespan, and the simple prediction about which device people will use to go on-line, well that is inevitable and won’t take much more than 3 or 4 years to transform to a primarily mobile experience.
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