Ad Cuts, Mass Market, Click Fraud and Couponing


mouseclick1.jpgADOTAS — Predictions about next year from Jim Sterne, Jaffer Ali, Ken Miller and Dave Hendricks.

“Advertising cuts will be come in various flavors this year. Some will simply cut across the board, some will cut based on gut, and some based on internal politics. The winners in 2009 will cut those online ads that do not deliver on awareness, opinion or demonstrable results in a measurable way and invest more in those communication channels that measurably deliver results, ” -according to Jim Sterne, founder of eMetrics Marketing Optimization Summit.

“The media landscape is changing rapidly before our eyes. The march to a fragmented, niche audience and markets happened over 25 years. We are now seeing a reversal of this trend that could result in a return to a mass market. Choices will become more limited. This includes our cable viewing choices, our toothpaste choices and certainly our auto choices. This will happen much faster that the time it took to fragment the audience,” according to Jaffer Ali, CEO of Vidsense.

“We predict that click fraud will increase in 2009, as more ad dollars move from branding to performance-based advertising.[1] Much like spam volume grew as email volume increased, we believe click fraud volume will grow in tandem with increases in CPC/CPA ad spend. As click fraud grows, it will reduce advertiser ROI, which will in turn lead marketers to become increasingly concerned with click fraud in 2009. If marketers begin to see drops in ROI due to click fraud, this could adversely affect online advertising growth – much the way ID theft affected online commerce in the early days of the Internet – if networks fail to take additional measures to improve their detection of click fraud, according to Ken Miller, CEO, Anchor Intelligence.

From Dave Hendricks, Executive Vice President of Strategic Sales and Planning, Datran Media:

“Big brands are going to increase promotional couponing strategies dramatically at the expense of branding campaigns and product margins.”

“Print advertising will decrease by another 10% and that the shelter and travel categories will see dramatic decreases in rate base and ad pages.”

“Local Marketing will finally start becoming a reality as publishers seek new revenue streams and local business fill the slots abandoned by ailing national brands.”

Car companies will start using CPA advertising as a way to drive traffic to dealerships and reduce bloated inventories.”

“VCs will push their portfolio companies to speed up their monetization plans as funding rounds decrease and investors seeks paths to profitability in an arid acquisition environment.”

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