Ballmer, Forrester Issue Divergent Predictions on Tech Market
ADOTAS – Heavy hitters are starting to come out of the woodwork and make predictions about the future of tech in the current economy. The verdicts: cautious optimism vs. predictions of significant slowdown.
Microsoft chief Steve Ballmer said the industry is still displaying remarkable “buoyancy” but cautioned that it “isn’t immune” to negative ramifications from the roiling market.
“At least, for now, people are feeling, I won’t say optimistic, but better than you would be feeling if you are watching CNBC all day,” Ballmer remarked at a meeting in Silicon Valley yesterday.
Ballmer also believes Microsoft is perfectly poised to finally beat Google at the online ad game: “If anyone is going to provide competition to Google I think Microsoft is in a good position to do that,” he said, alluding to opportunities he sees in online marketing (not search). Analysts are backing him up: they predict an 8% increase in revenue to roughly $15 billion during the fiscal quarter ending this month.
Forrester Research is predicting a statistically significant slowdown over the next three to four quarters.
“The biggest risk to the tech market comes, not from the Wall Street collapse, but from a collateral U.S. recession,” Forrester CEO George Colony wrote on his blog. “Forrester expects a mild recession in the U.S. and Europe lasting through Q3 and Q4 of 2008, and Q1 of 2009. While tech spending grew 8% in the U.S. in 2007, we are forecasting tech purchases to be up 5% in 2008, and up 6% in 2009.”
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